Fitch Solutions have predicted that protests and social discontent will likely ramp up in Nigeria if Bola Tinubu, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, wins the 2023 presidential election next year.
Fitch also predicted Tinubu would win the election next February to end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians,” Fitch Solutions said in an October 26 report.
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“In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi.
“These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote,” Fitch Solutions said.
As a result, Fitch Solutions revised the Social Stability component of its proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 (scores out of 100; a lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0.